What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 32%, implying a 32% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $290 Open interest $83.5K Event Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

32%

implied YES probability

-2.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 90 days · High 44% · Low 20% · 7d +7.9pp · 30d +65.8pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.