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Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by July 31, 2026?

Keir Starmer
Closes Jul 31, 2026 (22d) 24h volume $2 Open interest $6.2K Event Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?
38%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 11 days · High 46% · Low 16% · 7d +63.8pp
46%16%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.

Other outcomes in this event

Nicolás Maduro
100% YES
24h vol $2.5K
Zohran Mamdani
40% YES
24h vol $16
Freidrich Merz
28% YES
24h vol $55
Benjamin Netanyahu
18% YES
24h vol $125
Vladimir Putin
12% YES
24h vol $1

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.