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Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

25 bps increase
Closes Jul 31, 2026 (21d) 24h volume $1.8K Open interest $42.1K Event Bank of Japan Decision in July?
2%
implied YES probability
+1.2pp 24h

Price history

Last 52 days · High 40% · Low 1% · 7d -12.3pp · 30d -72.2pp
40%1%

How this market resolves

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Other outcomes in this event

No change
96% YES
24h vol $752
50+ bps increase
1% YES
24h vol $1.4K
25 bps decrease
0% YES
24h vol $373
50+ bps decrease
0% YES
24h vol $2.0K

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.