What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 32%, implying a 32% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

December 31, 2026

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $918 Open interest $96.0K Event Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

32%

implied YES probability

+1.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 90 days · High 37% · Low 10% · 7d -4.6pp · 30d +87.9pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between December 2, 2025 and the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.