What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 7%, implying a 7% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?

June 30

Closes Jan 31, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $3.7K Open interest $36.2K Event María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

implied YES probability

-1.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 74 days · High 68% · Low 8% · 7d -19.1pp · 30d -69.6pp

How this market resolves

If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.