polymarket Politics

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

June 15
Closes Jun 30, 2026 (13d) 24h volume $26 Open interest $29.6K Event Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
1%
implied YES probability
-2.4pp 24h

Price history

Last 9 days · High 28% · Low 1% · 7d -89.7pp
28%1%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

June 30
78% YES
24h vol $8.0K
June 22
68% YES
24h vol $2.5K

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