polymarket Politics

Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Elon Musk
Closes Oct 10, 2026 (114d) 24h volume $8.1K Open interest $1.1M Event Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
1%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 2% · Low 0% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d +44.4pp
2%0%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Other outcomes in this event

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10% YES
24h vol $1.5K
UNRWA
8% YES
24h vol $865
Donald Trump
8% YES
24h vol $2.8K
Yulia Navalnaya
6% YES
24h vol $1.8K
Pope Leo XIV
4% YES
24h vol $1.3K
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
4% YES
24h vol $1.3K
International Court of Justice
2% YES
24h vol $1.9K
Narendra Modi
2% YES
24h vol $3.1K

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.