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Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $1.6K Open interest $32.6K Event Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
24%
implied YES probability
-1.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 90 days · High 27% · Low 20% · 7d +13.3pp · 30d +10.9pp
27%20%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.