polymarket Politics

Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa
Closes Aug 01, 2026 (45d) 24h volume $4.0K Open interest $109.0K Event Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
6%
implied YES probability
-2.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 5 days · High 31% · Low 8%
31%8%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
90% YES
24h vol $11.8K
Shehbaz Sharif
38% YES
24h vol $8.3K
Abbas Araghchi
34% YES
24h vol $6.7K
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
20% YES
24h vol $8.0K
Masoud Pezeshkian
16% YES
24h vol $4.6K
Steve Witkoff
16% YES
24h vol $7.2K
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah
10% YES
24h vol $16.8K
Marco Rubio
8% YES
24h vol $7.1K

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.