What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 20, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Sports

Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

New Zealand

Closes Jul 20, 2026 (32d) 24h volume $13 Open interest $478.6K Event World Cup: Nation to Reach Final

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 46 days · High 5% · Low 1% · 7d +65.2pp · 30d +123.5pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.