What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 7%, implying a 7% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket World

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $367 Open interest $13.5K Event Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 13% · Low 4% · 7d -13.8pp · 30d +50.6pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Javier Milei ceases to be the President of Argentina for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Javier Milei's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Argentina, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.