What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 67%, implying a 67% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

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Will Gable Steveson win by KO or TKO?

Steveson to win by KO/TKO?

Closes Jul 12, 2026 (2d) 24h volume $300 Open interest $40.4K Event UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)

67%

implied YES probability

+8.5pp 24h

Price history

Not enough price history yet.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Gable Steveson" if Gable Steveson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Elisha Ellison at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Elisha Ellison" if Elisha Ellison is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.