What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 66%, implying a 66% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

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Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Closes Jul 12, 2026 (2d) 24h volume $21 Open interest $41.9K Event UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)

66%

implied YES probability

+16.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 13 days · High 53% · Low 49% · 7d +5.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Gable Steveson" if Gable Steveson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Elisha Ellison at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Elisha Ellison" if Elisha Ellison is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.