What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 21, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?

Karrin Taylor Robson

Closes Jul 21, 2026 (33d) 24h volume $25 Open interest $5.7K Event Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner

implied YES probability

+1.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 3% · Low 1% · 7d +200.0pp · 30d +246.2pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Arizona, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Arizona Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Arizona Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.