What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 17%, implying a 17% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Trump say "Beer" this week?

Beer

Closes Jul 12, 2026 (3d) 24h volume $249 Open interest $1.4K Event What will Trump say this week? (July 6 - July 12)

17%

implied YES probability

-2.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 6 days · High 27% · Low 12%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.