polymarket Politics

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026?

Emmanuel Macron
Closes Jun 30, 2026 (12d) 24h volume $578 Open interest $74.9K Event Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?
10%
implied YES probability
-17.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 22 days · High 51% · Low 14% · 7d +68.8pp
51%14%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

Tucker Carlson
100% YES
24h vol —
Candace Owens
100% YES
24h vol —
Marjorie Taylor Greene
100% YES
24h vol —
Kaitlan Collins
100% YES
24h vol —
Joe Biden
100% YES
24h vol —
Barack Obama
100% YES
24h vol —
Jerome Powell
100% YES
24h vol —
Jimmy Kimmel
50% YES
24h vol $129

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.