What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 58%, implying a 58% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 07, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic

Closes Nov 07, 2028 (873d) 24h volume $5.2K Open interest $681.3K Event Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

58%

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 62% · Low 56% · 7d -1.7pp · 30d -1.7pp

How this market resolves

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.