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US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

June 30, 2026
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (197d) 24h volume $112 Open interest $29.0K Event US x Russia military clash by...?
1%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 90 days · High 6% · Low 0% · 7d -27.8pp · 30d -61.8pp
6%0%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

December 31, 2026
6% YES
24h vol $32.3K
December 31
0% YES
24h vol —
January 31
0% YES
24h vol —

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.