Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market for the Iranian regime's fall by September 30, 2026, currently assigns a 2% probability to the event occurring, with a YES price of 0.03. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the current stability and resilience of the Islamic Republic's ruling structures, including the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and IRGC control under clerical authority. The market is not reflecting any significant changes or developments that would suggest a heightened likelihood of regime collapse. For the price to move upward, there would need to be a notable shift in the political landscape, such as widespread protests, international pressure, or internal power struggles that significantly erode the regime's stability. Conversely, if the current situation remains unchanged and no new factors emerge that could precipitate regime change, the market is likely to continue reflecting its current low probability of the event occurring by September 30.