What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 26%, implying a 26% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 19, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Sports

Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

Quarterfinals

Closes Jul 19, 2026 (9d) 24h volume $1.3K Open interest $57.4K Event World Cup: Spain Stage of Elimination

26%

implied YES probability

+0.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 35 days · High 49% · Low 12% · 7d +54.5pp · 30d +64.5pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Spain is eliminated. If Spain wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Spain is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Spain based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.