What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 18, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Candidate L win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Candidate L

Closes Jun 18, 2026 (0d) 24h volume — Open interest $3.4M Event Makerfield by-election Winner

implied YES probability

Price history

Not enough price history yet.

How this market resolves

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.