Trump out as President by July 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market for Trump out as President by July 31 is currently indicating a 0% probability, with a YES price of $0.00. This suggests that the market does not expect Donald Trump to resign or be removed from office before the specified deadline. The current price is informed by the fact that there has been no public indication of Trump's intention to resign or be removed from office, and no known events or circumstances that would prompt such an outcome in the near future. Any announcement of Trump's resignation or removal prior to July 31 would immediately resolve the market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. A permanent removal from office would qualify as a resolution to "Yes".