What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 6%, implying a 6% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?

December 31, 2026

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $188 Open interest $31.0K Event Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 89 days · High 22% · Low 4% · 7d -43.8pp · 30d -55.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo announces she is resigning as President of Mexico or otherwise ceases to be President of Mexico for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Claudia Sheinbaum or the Government of Mexico, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.