What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 17%, implying a 17% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?

Italy

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $465 Open interest $40.3K Event Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

17%

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 90 days · High 22% · Low 10% · 7d -8.1pp · 30d +9.7pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.