What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 70%, implying a 70% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 16, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?

Bola Tinubu

Closes Jan 16, 2027 (213d) 24h volume $281 Open interest $4.1K Event Nigerian Presidential Election Winner

70%

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 16 days · High 70% · Low 55% · 7d +4.4pp

How this market resolves

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.