polymarket
World
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
April 30
0%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 39 days ·
High 2% ·
Low 0%
· 7d -88.9pp
· 30d -94.1pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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US Draft Deal Includes Financial Incentives for Iran | Balance of Power: Late Edition 06/16/2026
Bloomberg Politics · 6h ago
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BMW cuts 2026 outlook on China downturn, Iran war
Investing.com · 13h ago
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SpaceX Shares Surge, US & Iran Prepare for Deal Signing | The Opening Trade 6/16/2026
Bloomberg Markets · 19h ago
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