polymarket Politics

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026?

July 16
Closes Jul 31, 2026 (22d) 24h volume $1.3K Open interest $33.6K Event Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
87%
implied YES probability
+8.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 4 days · High 74% · Low 66%
74%66%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

July 31
92% YES
24h vol $452
July 17
85% YES
24h vol $4.6K
July 15
85% YES
24h vol $1.9K
July 14
58% YES
24h vol $3.2K
July 13
2% YES
24h vol $6
July 10
0% YES
24h vol $46

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.