polymarket
Politics
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
14%
implied YES probability
-1.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 26% ·
Low 14%
· 7d -6.5pp
· 30d -12.1pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Recent news mentioning this market
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Taiwan Slams China’s ‘Gangster’ Tactics as Kenya Detains Scholar
Bloomberg Politics · 18h ago
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