What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 1%, implying a 1% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Marcus Howard Pearcey win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?

Marcus Howard Pearcey

Closes Jul 16, 2026 (7d) 24h volume $1.4K Open interest $8.1K Event Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner By-Election Winner

implied YES probability

+0.9pp 24h

Price history

Last 8 days · High 38% · Low 0% · 7d -96.8pp

How this market resolves

A by-election for the Police and Crime Commissioner of the Norfolk Police Area is currently scheduled to be held on July 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Police & Crime Commissioner for Norfolk (https://www.norfolk-pcc.gov.uk/) and the Broadland District Council (https://www.southnorfolkandbroadland.gov.uk/).

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.