What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 30%, implying a 30% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 18, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

Catalina Lauf

Closes Aug 18, 2026 (39d) 24h volume $20 Open interest $3.6K Event FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

30%

implied YES probability

-1.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 57% · Low 30% · 7d +1.7pp · 30d -41.8pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.