polymarket Politics

Will Alberta join the US?

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $122 Open interest $14.2K Event Will Alberta join the US?
4%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 60 days · High 6% · Low 3% · 7d -8.9pp · 30d -10.0pp
6%3%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.