What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 5%, implying a 5% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 19, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?

Nito Abreu

Closes Jul 19, 2026 (10d) 24h volume $27 Open interest $12.0K Event São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Election Winner

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 16 days · High 30% · Low 5% · 7d -82.5pp

How this market resolves

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.