What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026?

December 31, 2026

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (174d) 24h volume $270 Open interest $4.8K Event Will Argentina dollarize by...?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 12 days · High 50% · Low 4% · 7d -64.8pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun. Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.