What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 1%, implying a 1% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Business

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Closes Jun 30, 2026 (12d) 24h volume $320 Open interest $65.2K Event Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 90 days · High 16% · Low 1% · 7d -16.7pp · 30d -69.4pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.