HILLTOP HOLDINGS INC.(HTH)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $29.20 – $40.41
- YTD
- +17.11%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 4.09
- Straddle Price
- $3.60
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.02
- Market Cap
- $2.3B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.58% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.08% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.69% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +30.4pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 22.1% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -4.4% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.2B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 7.5% |
| Book / Price | 89.1% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Bank Quality Adj | ×0.72 (target ROE vs peer median) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 79.4% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | -11.1% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.07 |
| Quality Score | 2/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $37.89 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $38.61 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 17.6% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.7B |
| Market Cap | $2B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $5.02 | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | $24.72 | 14% | median 13.0× · 8 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 11.4× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/B | $49.49 | 21% | median 1.4× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | $53.26 | 7% | median 2.9× · 8 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $37.89 | 58% | stability 62% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
- Industry (SIC)
- STATE COMMERCIAL BANKS (6022)
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $2.3B
Hilltop Holdings Inc is a Dallas-based financial holding company. The company has three segments: The banking segment includes the operations of the Bank; The broker-dealer segment includes the operations of Securities Holdings,; and the mortgage origination segment is composed of PrimeLending. Majority of revenue is from Broker-dealer Segment.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.81% | 6 |
| Feb | +1.12% | 6 |
| Mar | -2.64% | 6 |
| Apr | +0.24% | 6 |
| May | +1.25% | 6 |
| Jun | -0.92% | 6 |
| Jul | +0.19% | 6 |
| Aug | -0.53% | 5 |
| Sep | -3.66% | 5 |
| Oct | +2.33% | 5 |
| Nov | +2.74% | 5 |
| Dec | +1.12% | 5 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-25 | Pre-Market | 12.91% | 2.11% | 0.16x | Within |
| 2024-10-24 | Pre-Market | 6.95% | 3.07% | 0.44x | Within |
| 2025-01-30 | Pre-Market | 15.61% | 0.57% | 0.04x | Within |
| 2025-04-24 | Pre-Market | 13.64% | 1.17% | 0.09x | Within |
| 2025-07-24 | Pre-Market | 15.78% | 2.46% | 0.16x | Within |
| 2025-10-23 | Pre-Market | 16.80% | 0.46% | 0.03x | Within |
| 2026-01-29 | Pre-Market | 7.38% | 0.03% | 0.00x | Within |
| 2026-04-23 | Pre-Market | 9.12% | 1.06% | 0.12x | Within |
- IV Rank (30D)
- 4.09
- IV Rank (7D)
- 64.06
- Avg IV
- 57.0%
- Straddle (30D)
- $3.60
- Straddle (7D)
- $2.77
- P/C Volume
- 0.02
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.52
- Correlation (SPY)
- 27.8%
- R²
- 0.08
- Ann. Volatility
- 23.4%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.6%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $42.98K | 85.71% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $7.16K | 14.29% | 2026-03-31 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | COREY PRESTIDGE | EVP, General Counsel & Sec. | Award (A) | +66 | $34.90 | $2.3K | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-02 | CARL B WEBB | Director | Award (A) | +343 | $38.62 | $13.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-02 | Keith E. Bornemann | Chief Accounting Officer | Award (A) | +60 | $34.90 | $2.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-02 | William B Furr | Chief Financial Officer | Award (A) | +50 | $34.90 | $1.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-02 | JONATHAN S SOBEL | Hilltop Securities Chairman | Award (A) | +171 | $38.62 | $6.6K | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-02 | DARREN E PARMENTER | Chief Administrative Officer | Award (A) | +80 | $34.90 | $2.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-02 | Robert JR Taylor | Director | Award (A) | +203 | $38.62 | $7.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-04 | Rhodes R Bobbitt | Director | Sell (S) | −10,000 | $38.00 | -$380.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-28 | Rhodes R Bobbitt | Director | Sell (S) | −20,000 | $37.88 | -$757.5K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-26 | JONATHAN S SOBEL | Hilltop Securities Chairman | Award (A) | +113 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-26 | Steve B Thompson | PrimeLending President and CEO | Award (A) | +393 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-26 | Martin Bradley Winges | Hilltop Securities CEO | Award (A) | +147 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-26 | COREY PRESTIDGE | EVP, General Counsel & Sec. | Award (A) | +651 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-15 | Rhodes R Bobbitt | Director | Sell (S) | −10,000 | $37.25 | -$372.5K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-06 | Keith E. Bornemann | Chief Accounting Officer | Sell (S) | −2,000 | $38.00 | -$76.0K | EDGAR |
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diamond HTH Stock Company, LP | 10%+ Owner | 15,898,280 | $614.95M | $0 | 15 | 2025-06-05 |
| 2 | GERALD J FORD | Director | 15,812,311 | $611.62M | $13.95M | 30 | 2026-03-04 |
| 3 | Diamond HTH Stock Co GP, LLC | 10%+ Owner | 15,552,540 | $601.57M | -$39.47M | 16 | 2026-03-09 |
| 4 | HUNTERS GLEN/ FORD, LTD. | 10%+ Owner | 9,030,093 | $349.28M | $109.72M | 1 | 2008-09-26 |
| 5 | RICHARD B FRIED | 10%+ Owner | 5,951,369 | $230.20M | -$2.68M | 1 | 2008-09-22 |
| 6 | FARALLON CAPITAL INSTITUTIONAL PARTNERS II LP | 10%+ Owner | 5,561,170 | $215.11M | -$2.68M | 1 | 2008-09-22 |
| 7 | THOMAS F STEYER | 10%+ Owner | 2,802,709 | $108.41M | $0 | 1 | 2007-01-25 |
| 8 | Douglas M MacMahon | 10%+ Owner | 2,374,716 | $91.85M | $0 | 1 | 2007-01-25 |
| 9 | JEREMY B FORD | President & CEO | 1,644,035 | $63.59M | $1.48M | 34 | 2026-04-02 |
| 10 | Charles Clifton Robinson | Director | 1,265,024 | $48.93M | $1.05M | 3 | 2017-08-31 |
What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. Amendments (Form 144/A) and post-cancellation refilings can inflate this if you sum naively; the rollup above excludes filings with zero stated value.
Source & freshness: Parsed directly from EDGAR primary-doc XML. Daily refresh; new filings typically appear here the morning after they hit EDGAR.
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Rhodes R. Bobbitt | Director | 62,100 | $2.32M | 2026-05-12 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-05 | KEITH BORNEMANN | Officer | 2,000 | $76.0K | 2026-05-05 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-06 | STEVE THOMPSON | Officer | 9,025 | $359.6K | 2026-02-06 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-03 | MARTIN BRADLEY WINGES | Officer | 26,000 | $999.9K | 2026-02-03 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-11-25 | KEITH BORNEMANN | Officer | 2,200 | $77.0K | 2025-11-25 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-09-03 | John Markham Green | Director | 20,000 | $701.6K | 2025-09-03 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-08-26 | John Markham Green | Director | 9,763 | $343.4K | 2025-08-26 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-08-22 | John Markham Green | Director | 25,000 | $866.5K | 2025-08-22 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-08-20 | John Markham Green | Director | 10,000 | $330.5K | 2025-08-20 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-08-14 | John Markham Green | Director | 20,000 | $655.6K | 2025-08-14 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | — | EDGAR |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 15.0 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.1 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.0 |
| TTM Revenue | $1.6B |
| TTM Net Income | $0.2B |
| TTM EPS | $2.64 |
| ROE | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.98% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.53 |