Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares(PONY)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$9.58
- 52-Week Range
- $7.99 – $24.92
- YTD
- -40.39%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 20.18
- Straddle Price
- $1.79
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 1.28
- Market Cap
- $4.5B
Fair Value
+1.2% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.47% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.97% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.97% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +52.6pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 1/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $9.83 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $9.37 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 354.2% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.3B |
Peers used for multiples: BWA, INDI, NIO, RIVN, WRD, XPEV
Blended Fair Value
$9.69
Current Price
$9.57
Deviation
+1.2%
Forward-Return Rank
LONG
gates ✓
?
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | +1.5% | +0.46 | +0.08 | 23.0% | — |
| 42d | +1.9% | +0.58 | +0.14 | 25.2% | — |
| 63d | +1.6% | +0.51 | +0.11 | 23.9% | — |
Expected α = forward-return point estimate vs SPY (e.g., +7.5% means the predictor expects this stock to outperform SPY by 7.5% over that horizon).
For SHORT direction the model uses a different ranking metric (conviction-weighted deviation, not the LGBM prediction); Expected α is shown for reference.
⚠ flags rows where Expected α disagrees with the FV direction — two independent signals are in conflict; conviction is low even if rank looks extreme.
Forward-Return Rank. A proprietary ensemble of a machine-learning forward-return model and a conviction-weighted fundamental score, ranked cross-sectionally each day across the S&P 500 (and broader universes on the screener). Each stock is scored at three horizons (21/42/63 trading days). "Active" = top/bottom 5% AND all risk filters pass. Backtested mean alpha vs SPY on active picks: 21d LONG +13.4%, 63d +34.9% (S&P 500, walk-forward). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Value vs momentum conflict ⚠. The "FV direction" (long/short) comes from the fundamentals-based engine — price vs intrinsic value. The "Expected α" comes from a separate machine-learning predictor trained on ~12 features (sector, options-implied move, beta, institutional flow, etc.). Sometimes the two disagree: a stock is overvalued by fundamentals but the predictor expects it to keep outperforming (sector or momentum tailwinds). When all 3 horizons disagree, treat the direction signal as low-conviction — neither model is strongly recommending a position.
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/B | n/a | 0% | median 3.3× · 3 peers |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | median 4.2× · 3 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $9.83 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $9.69 | 100% | 28 strikes · skew +0.08 |
As of 2026-06-04 · updated 2026-06-04 17:50:06.473000
Info
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $4.5B
Pony AI Inc is an artificial intelligence technology company that is principally engaged in the operation and development of autonomous vehicles. It operates fully driverless robotaxis through the PonyPilot mobile app in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. The company operates a fleet of robotaxis. The Group conducts its operations mainly in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United States of America (U.S.) through subsidiaries. Key revenue is generated from the Peoples Republic of China.
Price History
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | -10.23% | 2 |
| Feb | +14.49% | 2 |
| Mar | -37.78% | 2 |
| Apr | -3.83% | 2 |
| May | +25.51% | 2 |
| Jun | -15.46% | 2 |
| Jul | +16.46% | 1 |
| Aug | -0.14% | 1 |
| Sep | +61.80% | 1 |
| Oct | -17.60% | 1 |
| Nov | -16.83% | 2 |
| Dec | +7.47% | 2 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $9.34
SMA 50: $9.79
SMA 200: $14.25
Current: $9.57
EMA 12: $9.83
EMA 26: $9.76
MACD: 0.0693 | Signal: 0.1843
BEARISH
ADX (14): 23.65
WEAK TREND
+DI: 29.71
−DI: 25.45
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 47.81
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 68.95
Stoch %D: 81.36
Williams %R: -51.82
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $10.84
BB Lower: $7.83
NEUTRAL
OBV: 43,268,065
Vol SMA 20: 5,633,567
Vol ROC: -7.24%
ATR: $0.65
True Range: $0.94
HV 20: 65.0%
HV 30: 62.4%
HV 60: 74.6%
Data Summary
Data Points: 378
Last Updated: 2026-06-04T17:50:12.919000
Date Range: 2024-11-27T00:00:00 – 2026-06-03T00:00:00
AI Analysis
LLM Stock Analysis Report
SYMBOL: PONY
Executive Summary
- Overall Assessment: BEARISH (Confidence Level: 6/10)
- Key Drivers and Primary Risks:
- High volatility and beta indicate high risk
- Recent negative news headlines may be weighing on the stock
- Options market pricing a potential $1.76 move by expiration, which could lead to further losses if not managed properly
- 2-3 Sentence Investment Thesis: PONY's recent performance has been volatile, driven by both fundamental and technical factors. While the company's AI and robotaxi initiatives hold promise, the stock's high risk profile and negative news sentiment argue against a strong buy recommendation at this time.
- Recent News Sentiment Impact: The overall sentiment is NEUTRAL with a slight tilt towards NEGATIVE due to recent headlines highlighting concerns around AI theft and safety issues.
Technical Analysis
- Trend Direction:
- Short-term (1-4 weeks): BEARISH
- Medium-term (1-3 months): NEUTRAL
- Long-term (3-12 months): BULLISH
- Support/Resistance Levels: $9.34 (SMA 20), $7.83 (Lower BB)
- Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: NEUTRAL (47.46) - no clear buy or sell signal
- MACD signal: BEARISH (crossover below signal line)
- Bollinger Bands position: NEUTRAL (price within the bands)
- Volume Analysis: Volume trends indicate a potential reversal, with a volume rate of change of -33.70%. However, this may not be enough to reverse the bearish momentum.
News & Sentiment Analysis
- Recent Headlines Summary: Recent headlines have been mixed, with some positive news on AI and robotaxi initiatives, but also negative news around safety concerns and AI theft.
- Sentiment Assessment: NEUTRAL with a slight tilt towards NEGATIVE due to recent headlines
- Catalyst Identification: None immediate, but the company's upcoming earnings report (no date available) may provide some direction.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
- Beta Interpretation: High risk relative to market (beta 3.40)
- Volatility Regime: Current volatility is higher than historical levels
- Options Market Signals: IV rank is low, indicating historically low volatility; put/call ratios suggest bearish sentiment.
- Downside Protection: Support levels are at $9.34 and $7.83, with a potential breakdown risk.
Market Context & Positioning
- Sector Performance: PONY's sector (Technology) has been performing well recently
- Institutional Activity: No clear institutional interest signals
- Correlation Analysis: The stock is highly correlated to market movements (R-squared 0.53)
- Relative Valuation: PONY is trading near its upper Bollinger Band and above its SMA 20, indicating a potentially overbought condition.
Key Levels & Action Items
- Critical Price Levels: $9.34 (SMA 20), $7.83 (Lower BB)
- Breakout/Breakdown Levels: $10.84 (Upper BB) - potential resistance; $8.50 - potential support
- Time-Sensitive Catalysts: None immediate, but the company's upcoming earnings report may provide some direction.
- Risk Management: Consider implementing stop-loss levels at $9.34 and $7.83 to manage risk.
This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of PONY's technical and fundamental characteristics, as well as its recent news sentiment and market context. The overall assessment is BEARISH due to the stock's high volatility, negative news headlines, and bearish momentum signals. However, investors may still consider a long-term perspective, potentially looking for dips to buy or using options strategies to manage risk.
Generated 2026-06-04 11:55 UTC
News
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 20.18
- IV Rank (7D)
- 49.43
- Avg IV
- 146.7%
- Straddle (30D)
- $1.79
- Straddle (7D)
- $1.01
- P/C Volume
- 1.28
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 3.38
- Correlation (SPY)
- 52.9%
- R²
- 0.28
- Ann. Volatility
- 75.9%
- SPY Volatility
- 11.9%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 379,914,317 (as of 2025-12-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
16 filers$52.06M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT LLC | $21.05M | 40.44% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | MASTERS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $9.44M | 18.13% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $4.83M | 9.28% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $4.16M | 7.99% | 2025-09-30 |
| 5 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $2.52M | 4.84% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | Belvedere Trading LLC | $1.90M | 3.66% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $1.85M | 3.56% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $1.83M | 3.52% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $1.55M | 2.97% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $1.34M | 2.58% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $761.81K | 1.46% | 2026-03-31 |
| 12 | Walleye Capital LLC | $298.30K | 0.57% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | Walleye Trading LLC | $260.54K | 0.50% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | CITIGROUP INC Custodian | $135.94K | 0.26% | 2026-03-31 |
| 15 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $100.06K | 0.19% | 2026-03-31 |
| 16 | HAP TRADING, LLC | $25.33K | 0.05% | 2025-09-30 |
12 filers$17.19M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $4.73M | 27.52% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $3.87M | 22.49% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $3.27M | 19.03% | 2025-09-30 |
| 4 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $1.68M | 9.77% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $1.42M | 8.25% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $1.13M | 6.60% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | Walleye Capital LLC | $402.14K | 2.34% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $271.87K | 1.58% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | Walleye Trading LLC | $168.98K | 0.98% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $125.55K | 0.73% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $116.11K | 0.68% | 2026-03-31 |
| 12 | Belvedere Trading LLC | $4.72K | 0.03% | 2026-03-31 |
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.