What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 23, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Hike more than 25bps

Closes Jul 23, 2026 (36d) 24h volume 35 Open interest 1.6K Event European Central Bank rate decision in July

2%

implied YES probability

+2.0pp 24h

Last 6 days · High 3% · Low 1%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.