kalshi Economics

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?

Cut 25bps
Closes Jun 17, 2026 (0d) 24h volume 1.6M Open interest 7.2M Event Fed decision in Jun 2026?
0%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 16% · Low 1% · 7d -50.0pp · 30d -66.7pp
16%1%

Other outcomes in this event

Fed maintains rate
100% YES
24h vol 2.9M
Cut >25bps
0% YES
24h vol 299.0K
Hike 25bps
0% YES
24h vol 226.7K
Hike >25bps
0% YES
24h vol 46.2K

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently indicating a 0% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their June 2026 meeting. This assessment is based on current economic data and market expectations. The Fed's decision to cut rates would typically be influenced by factors such as inflation, employment, and overall economic growth. A significant improvement in these indicators could increase the likelihood of a rate cut, potentially driving up the YES price. Conversely, a deterioration in these metrics or concerns about inflationary pressures could lead to a decrease in the probability of a rate cut, causing the YES price to fall.
Generated Jun 17, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.