What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 14%, implying a 14% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before Aug 1, 2026

Closes Aug 01, 2026 (44d) 24h volume 5.1K Open interest 39.2K Event Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

14%

implied YES probability

+5.7pp 24h

Last 71 days · High 42% · Low 6% · 7d +40.0pp · 30d -26.3pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.