What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before Sep 1, 2026

Closes Sep 01, 2026 (75d) 24h volume 9.3K Open interest 51.9K Event Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

18%

implied YES probability

Last 71 days · High 48% · Low 12% · 7d +33.3pp · 30d -30.4pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.