What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Financials

5,900 or below

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 592 Open interest 121.4K Event How low will the S&P get this year?

18%

implied YES probability

Last 88 days · High 72% · Low 14% · 7d +0.5pp · 30d -11.2pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.