What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 29%, implying a 29% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Financials

6,300 or below

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 251 Open interest 79.6K Event How low will the S&P get this year?

29%

implied YES probability

+2.3pp 24h

Last 89 days · High 97% · Low 26% · 7d -14.1pp · 30d -32.4pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.