What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 78%, implying a 78% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 02, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Keir Starmer

Closes Jan 02, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 173 Open interest 130.3K Event Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

78%

implied YES probability

-2.0pp 24h

Last 88 days · High 89% · Low 40% · 7d +5.5pp · 30d 0.0pp

Spread 3.7¢ · Mid 90.8¢

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.