What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 9%, implying a 9% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

7 or more

Closes Nov 03, 2026 (139d) 24h volume 13 Open interest 45.3K Event How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

implied YES probability

-11.5pp 24h

Last 87 days · High 50% · Low 2% · 7d -90.6pp · 30d -93.2pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.