What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 10%, implying a 10% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Closes Nov 03, 2026 (139d) 24h volume 8 Open interest 9.0K Event How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

10%

implied YES probability

Last 37 days · High 21% · Low 15% · 7d -16.7pp · 30d -25.0pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.