What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 5%, implying a 5% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Closes Nov 03, 2026 (139d) 24h volume 20 Open interest 10.2K Event How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

implied YES probability

+1.8pp 24h

Last 43 days · High 15% · Low 7% · 7d -25.4pp · 30d -41.4pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.