What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 94%, implying a 94% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

2

Closes Nov 03, 2026 (139d) 24h volume 1.1K Open interest 40.3K Event How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

94%

implied YES probability

-0.5pp 24h

Last 89 days · High 94% · Low 40% · 7d -0.6pp · 30d +68.4pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.