What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

4 or more

Closes Nov 03, 2026 (139d) 24h volume 431 Open interest 73.6K Event How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

4%

implied YES probability

-2.6pp 24h

Last 81 days · High 12% · Low 1% · 7d +90.5pp · 30d -55.6pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.