What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

3

Closes Nov 03, 2026 (139d) 24h volume 39 Open interest 38.4K Event How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

4%

implied YES probability

Last 81 days · High 12% · Low 1% · 7d +46.3pp · 30d -24.1pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.