kalshi
Sports
Will the USA win the 2026 Men's World Cup?
USA
4%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 89 days ·
High 4% ·
Low 1%
· 7d +131.2pp
· 30d +131.2pp
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market for the 2026 Men's World Cup winner indicates a low likelihood of the USA emerging victorious, with a current YES price of 0.03, implying a probability of approximately 3%. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the team's recent performance and the strength of their opponents in the tournament. The market is currently pricing in a relatively low chance of success for the US team, reflecting the challenges they may face in competing against top-ranked teams from around the world. Any significant changes to the team's roster or coaching staff could impact the price, with an improvement in performance potentially driving the YES price higher and a decline in form pushing it lower. The market will continue to reassess the likelihood of the USA winning as new information becomes available, with the current price serving as a snapshot of the collective opinion at this time.
Generated Jun 17, 2026
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.6¢ | 7262 | 3.7¢ | 82044 | |
| 3.5¢ | 5622 | 3.8¢ | 970294 | |
| 3.4¢ | 44144 | 3.9¢ | 167353 | |
| 3.3¢ | 49672 | 4.0¢ | 250380 | |
| 3.2¢ | 37111 | 4.1¢ | 20000 |
Spread 0.1¢ · Mid 3.6¢
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.